The population genetics of partial diapause, with applications to the aestivating malaria mosquito Anopheles coluzzii.

Diapause, a form of dormancy to delay or halt the reproductive development during unfavourable seasons, has evolved in many insect species. One example is aestivation, an adult-stage diapause enhancing malaria vectors' survival during the dry season (DS) and their re-establishment in the next rainy season (RS). This work develops a novel genetic approach to estimate the number or proportion of individuals undergoing diapause, as well as the breeding sizes of the two seasons, using signals from temporal allele frequency dynamics. Our modelling shows the magnitude of drift is dampened at early RS when previously aestivating individuals reappear. Aestivation severely biases the temporal effective population size ( N e $$ {N}_e $$ ), leading to overestimation of the DS breeding size by 1 / 1 - α 2 $$ 1/{\left(1-\alpha \right)}^2 $$ across 1 year, where α $$ \alpha $$ is the aestivating proportion. We find sampling breeding individuals in three consecutive seasons starting from an RS is sufficient for parameter estimation, and perform extensive simulations to verify our derivations. This method does not require sampling individuals in the dormant state, the biggest challenge in most studies. We illustrate the method by applying it to a published data set for Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes from Thierola, Mali. Our method and the expected evolutionary implications are applicable to any species in which a fraction of the population diapauses for more than one generation, and are difficult or impossible to sample during that stage.

Potential persistence mechanisms of the major Anopheles gambiae species complex malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa: a narrative review.

The source of malaria vector populations that re-establish at the beginning of the rainy season is still unclear yet knowledge of mosquito behaviour is required to effectively institute control measures. Alternative hypotheses like aestivation, local refugia, migration between neighbouring sites, and long-distance migration (LDM) are stipulated to support mosquito persistence. This work assessed the malaria vector persistence dynamics and examined various studies done on vector survival  via these hypotheses; aestivation, local refugia, local or long-distance migration across sub-Saharan Africa, explored a range of methods used, ecological parameters and highlighted the knowledge trends and gaps. The results about a particular persistence mechanism that supports the re-establishment of Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii or Anopheles arabiensis in sub-Saharan Africa were not conclusive given that each method used had its limitations. For example, the Mark-Release-Recapture (MRR) method whose challenge is a low recapture rate that affects its accuracy, and the use of time series analysis through field collections whose challenge is the uncertainty about whether not finding mosquitoes during the dry season is a weakness of the conventional sampling methods used or because of hidden shelters. This, therefore, calls for further investigations emphasizing the use of ecological experiments under controlled conditions in the laboratory or semi-field, and genetic approaches, as they are known to complement each other. This review, therefore, unveils and assesses the uncertainties that influence the different malaria vector persistence mechanisms and provides recommendations for future studies.

Gene drive designs for efficient and localisable population suppression using Y-linked editors.

The sterile insect technique (SIT) has been successful in controlling some pest species but is not practicable for many others due to the large number of individuals that need to be reared and released. Previous computer modelling has demonstrated that the release of males carrying a Y-linked editor that kills or sterilises female descendants could be orders of magnitude more efficient than SIT while still remaining spatially restricted, particularly if combined with an autosomal sex distorter. In principle, further gains in efficiency could be achieved by using a self-propagating double drive design, in which each of the two components (the Y-linked editor and the sex ratio distorter) boosted the transmission of the other. To better understand the expected dynamics and impact of releasing constructs of this new design we have analysed a deterministic population genetic and population dynamic model. Our modelling demonstrates that this design can suppress a population from very low release rates, with no invasion threshold. Importantly, the design can work even if homing rates are low and sex chromosomes are silenced at meiosis, potentially expanding the range of species amenable to such control. Moreover, the predicted dynamics and impacts can be exquisitely sensitive to relatively small (e.g., 25%) changes in allele frequencies in the target population, which could be exploited for sequence-based population targeting. Analysis of published Anopheles gambiae genome sequences indicates that even for weakly differentiated populations with an FST of 0.02 there may be thousands of suitably differentiated genomic sites that could be used to restrict the spread and impact of a release. Our proposed design, which extends an already promising development pathway based on Y-linked editors, is therefore a potentially useful addition to the menu of options for genetic biocontrol.

A theory of resistance to multiplexed gene drive demonstrates the significant role of weakly deleterious natural genetic variation.

Evolution of resistance is a major barrier to successful deployment of gene-drive systems to suppress natural populations, which could greatly reduce the burden of many vector-borne diseases. Multiplexed guide RNAs (gRNAs) that require resistance mutations in all target cut sites are a promising antiresistance strategy since, in principle, resistance would only arise in unrealistically large populations. Using stochastic simulations that accurately model evolution at very large population sizes, we explore the probability of resistance due to three important mechanisms: 1) nonhomologous end-joining mutations, 2) single-nucleotide mutants arising de novo, or 3) single-nucleotide polymorphisms preexisting as standing variation. Our results explore the relative importance of these mechanisms and highlight a complexity of the mutation-selection-drift balance between haplotypes with complete resistance and those with an incomplete number of resistant alleles. We find that this leads to a phenomenon where weakly deleterious naturally occurring variants greatly amplify the probability of multisite resistance compared to de novo mutation. This key result provides design criterion for antiresistance multiplexed systems, which, in general, will need a larger number of gRNAs compared to de novo expectations. This theory may have wider application to the evolution of resistance or evolutionary rescue when multiple changes are required before selection can act.

Gene drives and population persistence vs elimination: The impact of spatial structure and inbreeding at low density.

Synthetic gene drive constructs are being developed to control disease vectors, invasive species, and other pest species. In a well-mixed random mating population a sufficiently strong gene drive is expected to eliminate a target population, but it is not clear whether the same is true when spatial processes play a role. In species with an appropriate biology it is possible that drive-induced reductions in density might lead to increased inbreeding, reducing the efficacy of drive, eventually leading to suppression rather than elimination, regardless of how strong the drive is. To investigate this question we analyse a series of explicitly solvable stochastic models considering a range of scenarios for the relative timing of mating, reproduction, and dispersal and analyse the impact of two different types of gene drive, a Driving Y chromosome and a homing construct targeting an essential gene. We find in all cases a sufficiently strong Driving Y will go to fixation and the population will be eliminated, except in the one life history scenario (reproduction and mating in patches followed by dispersal) where low density leads to increased inbreeding, in which case the population persists indefinitely, tending to either a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle. These dynamics arise because Driving Y males have reduced mating success, particularly at low densities, due to having fewer sisters to mate with. Increased inbreeding at low densities can also prevent a homing construct from eliminating a population. For both types of drive, if there is strong inbreeding depression, then the population cannot be rescued by inbreeding and it is eliminated. These results highlight the potentially critical role that low-density-induced inbreeding and inbreeding depression (and, by extension, other sources of Allee effects) can have on the eventual impact of a gene drive on a target population.

Resistance to a CRISPR-based gene drive at an evolutionarily conserved site is revealed by mimicking genotype fixation.

CRISPR-based homing gene drives can be designed to disrupt essential genes whilst biasing their own inheritance, leading to suppression of mosquito populations in the laboratory. This class of gene drives relies on CRISPR-Cas9 cleavage of a target sequence and copying ('homing') therein of the gene drive element from the homologous chromosome. However, target site mutations that are resistant to cleavage yet maintain the function of the essential gene are expected to be strongly selected for. Targeting functionally constrained regions where mutations are not easily tolerated should lower the probability of resistance. Evolutionary conservation at the sequence level is often a reliable indicator of functional constraint, though the actual level of underlying constraint between one conserved sequence and another can vary widely. Here we generated a novel adult lethal gene drive (ALGD) in the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, targeting an ultra-conserved target site in a haplosufficient essential gene (AGAP029113) required during mosquito development, which fulfils many of the criteria for the target of a population suppression gene drive. We then designed a selection regime to experimentally assess the likelihood of generation and subsequent selection of gene drive resistant mutations at its target site. We simulated, in a caged population, a scenario where the gene drive was approaching fixation, where selection for resistance is expected to be strongest. Continuous sampling of the target locus revealed that a single, restorative, in-frame nucleotide substitution was selected. Our findings show that ultra-conservation alone need not be predictive of a site that is refractory to target site resistance. Our strategy to evaluate resistance in vivo could help to validate candidate gene drive targets for their resilience to resistance and help to improve predictions of the invasion dynamics of gene drives in field populations.

Contemporary Ne estimation using temporally spaced data with linked loci.

The contemporary effective population size N e is important in many disciplines including population genetics, conservation science and pest management. One of the most popular methods of estimating this quantity uses temporal changes in allele frequency due to genetic drift. A significant assumption of the existing methods is the independence among loci while constructing confidence intervals (CI), which restricts the types of species or genetic data applicable to the methods. Although genetic linkage does not bias point N e estimates, applying these methods to linked loci can yield unreliable CI that are far too narrow. We extend the current methods to enable the use of many linked loci to produce precise contemporary N e estimates, while preserving the targeted CI width and coverage. This is achieved by deriving the covariance of changes in allele frequency at linked loci in the face of recombination and sampling errors, such that the extra sampling variance due to between-locus correlation is properly handled. Extensive simulations are used to verify the new method. We apply the method to two temporally spaced genomic data sets of Anopheles mosquitoes collected from a cluster of villages in Burkina Faso between 2012 and 2014. With over 33,000 linked loci considered, the N e estimate for Anopheles coluzzii is 9,242 (95% CI 5,702-24,282), and for Anopheles gambiae it is 4,826 (95% CI 3,602-7,353).

Systematic identification of plausible pathways to potential harm via problem formulation for investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive to control the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Population suppression gene drive has been proposed as a strategy for malaria vector control. A CRISPR-Cas9-based transgene homing at the doublesex locus (dsxFCRISPRh) has recently been shown to increase rapidly in frequency in, and suppress, caged laboratory populations of the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae. Here, problem formulation, an initial step in environmental risk assessment (ERA), was performed for simulated field releases of the dsxFCRISPRh transgene in West Africa. METHODS: Building on consultative workshops in Africa that previously identified relevant environmental and health protection goals for ERA of gene drive in malaria vector control, 8 potentially harmful effects from these simulated releases were identified. These were stratified into 46 plausible pathways describing the causal chain of events that would be required for potential harms to occur. Risk hypotheses to interrogate critical steps in each pathway, and an analysis plan involving experiments, modelling and literature review to test each of those risk hypotheses, were developed. RESULTS: Most potential harms involved increased human (n = 13) or animal (n = 13) disease transmission, emphasizing the importance to subsequent stages of ERA of data on vectorial capacity comparing transgenics to non-transgenics. Although some of the pathways (n = 14) were based on known anatomical alterations in dsxFCRISPRh homozygotes, many could also be applicable to field releases of a range of other transgenic strains of mosquito (n = 18). In addition to population suppression of target organisms being an accepted outcome for existing vector control programmes, these investigations also revealed that the efficacy of population suppression caused by the dsxFCRISPRh transgene should itself directly affect most pathways (n = 35). CONCLUSIONS: Modelling will play an essential role in subsequent stages of ERA by clarifying the dynamics of this relationship between population suppression and reduction in exposure to specific potential harms. This analysis represents a comprehensive identification of plausible pathways to potential harm using problem formulation for a specific gene drive transgene and organism, and a transparent communication tool that could inform future regulatory studies, guide subsequent stages of ERA, and stimulate further, broader engagement on the use of population suppression gene drive to control malaria vectors in West Africa.

Double drives and private alleles for localised population genetic control.

Synthetic gene drive constructs could, in principle, provide the basis for highly efficient interventions to control disease vectors and other pest species. This efficiency derives in part from leveraging natural processes of dispersal and gene flow to spread the construct and its impacts from one population to another. However, sometimes (for example, with invasive species) only specific populations are in need of control, and impacts on non-target populations would be undesirable. Many gene drive designs use nucleases that recognise and cleave specific genomic sequences, and one way to restrict their spread would be to exploit sequence differences between target and non-target populations. In this paper we propose and model a series of low threshold double drive designs for population suppression, each consisting of two constructs, one imposing a reproductive load on the population and the other inserted into a differentiated locus and controlling the drive of the first. Simple deterministic, discrete-generation computer simulations are used to assess the alternative designs. We find that the simplest double drive designs are significantly more robust to pre-existing cleavage resistance at the differentiated locus than single drive designs, and that more complex designs incorporating sex ratio distortion can be more efficient still, even allowing for successful control when the differentiated locus is neutral and there is up to 50% pre-existing resistance in the target population. Similar designs can also be used for population replacement, with similar benefits. A population genomic analysis of CRISPR PAM sites in island and mainland populations of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae indicates that the differentiation needed for our methods to work can exist in nature. Double drives should be considered when efficient but localised population genetic control is needed and there is some genetic differentiation between target and non-target populations.

Ultra-conserved sequences in the genomes of highly diverse Anopheles mosquitoes, with implications for malaria vector control.

DNA sequences that are exactly conserved over long evolutionary time scales have been observed in a variety of taxa. Such sequences are likely under strong functional constraint and they have been useful in the field of comparative genomics for identifying genome regions with regulatory function. A potential new application for these ultra-conserved elements (UCEs) has emerged in the development of gene drives to control mosquito populations. Many gene drives work by recognizing and inserting at a specific target sequence in the genome, often imposing a reproductive load as a consequence. They can therefore select for target sequence variants that provide resistance to the drive. Focusing on highly conserved, highly constrained sequences lowers the probability that variant, gene drive-resistant alleles can be tolerated. Here, we search for conserved sequences of 18 bp and over in an alignment of 21 Anopheles genomes, spanning an evolutionary timescale of 100 million years, and characterize the resulting sequences according to their location and function. Over 8000 UCEs were found across the alignment, with a maximum length of 164 bp. Length-corrected gene ontology analysis revealed that genes containing Anopheles UCEs were over-represented in categories with structural or nucleotide-binding functions. Known insect transcription factor binding sites were found in 48% of intergenic Anopheles UCEs. When we looked at the genome sequences of 1142 wild-caught mosquitoes, we found that 15% of the Anopheles UCEs contained no polymorphisms. Our list of Anopheles UCEs should provide a valuable starting point for the selection and testing of new targets for gene-drive modification in the mosquitoes that transmit malaria.

Regulating the expression of gene drives is key to increasing their invasive potential and the mitigation of resistance.

Homing-based gene drives use a germline source of nuclease to copy themselves at specific target sites in a genome and bias their inheritance. Such gene drives can be designed to spread and deliberately suppress populations of malaria mosquitoes by impairing female fertility. However, strong unintended fitness costs of the drive and a propensity to generate resistant mutations can limit a gene drive's potential to spread. Alternative germline regulatory sequences in the drive element confer improved fecundity of carrier individuals and reduced propensity for target site resistance. This is explained by reduced rates of end-joining repair of DNA breaks from parentally deposited nuclease in the embryo, which can produce heritable mutations that reduce gene drive penetrance. We tracked the generation and selection of resistant mutations over the course of a gene drive invasion of a population. Improved gene drives show faster invasion dynamics, increased suppressive effect and later onset of target site resistance. Our results show that regulation of nuclease expression is as important as the choice of target site when developing a robust homing-based gene drive for population suppression.

80 questions for UK biological security.

Multiple national and international trends and drivers are radically changing what biological security means for the United Kingdom (UK). New technologies present novel opportunities and challenges, and globalisation has created new pathways and increased the speed, volume and routes by which organisms can spread. The UK Biological Security Strategy (2018) acknowledges the importance of research on biological security in the UK. Given the breadth of potential research, a targeted agenda identifying the questions most critical to effective and coordinated progress in different disciplines of biological security is required. We used expert elicitation to generate 80 policy-relevant research questions considered by participants to have the greatest impact on UK biological security. Drawing on a collaboratively-developed set of 450 questions, proposed by 41 experts from academia, industry and the UK government (consulting 168 additional experts) we subdivided the final 80 questions into six categories: bioengineering; communication and behaviour; disease threats (including pandemics); governance and policy; invasive alien species; and securing biological materials and securing against misuse. Initially, the questions were ranked through a voting process and then reduced and refined to 80 during a one-day workshop with 35 participants from a variety of disciplines. Consistently emerging themes included: the nature of current and potential biological security threats, the efficacy of existing management actions, and the most appropriate future options. The resulting questions offer a research agenda for biological security in the UK that can assist the targeting of research resources and inform the implementation of the UK Biological Security Strategy. These questions include research that could aid with the mitigation of Covid-19, and preparation for the next pandemic. We hope that our structured and rigorous approach to creating a biological security research agenda will be replicated in other countries and regions. The world, not just the UK, is in need of a thoughtful approach to directing biological security research to tackle the emerging issues.

Population Size, Sex and Purifying Selection: Comparative Genomics of Two Sister Taxa of the Wild Yeast Saccharomyces paradoxus.

This study uses population genomic data to estimate demographic and selection parameters in two sister lineages of the wild yeast Saccharomyces paradoxus and compare their evolution. We first estimate nucleotide and recombinational diversities in each of the two lineages to infer their population size and frequency of sex and then analyze the rate of mutation accumulation since divergence from their inferred common ancestor to estimate the generation time and efficacy of selection. We find that one of the lineages has significantly higher silent nucleotide diversity and lower linkage disequilibrium, indicating a larger population with more frequent sexual generations. The same lineage also shows shorter generation time and higher efficacy of purifying selection, the latter consistent with the finding of larger population size and more frequent sex. Similar analyses are also performed on the ancestries of individual strains within lineages and we find significant differences between strains implying variation in rates of mitotic cell divisions. Our sample includes some strains originating in the Chernobyl nuclear-accident exclusion zone, which has been subjected to high levels of radiation for nearly 30 years now. We find no evidence, however, for increased rates of mutation. Finally, there is a positive correlation between rates of mutation accumulation and length of growing period, as measured by latitude of the place of origin of strains. Our study illustrates the power of genomic analyses in estimating population and life history parameters and testing predictions based on population genetic theory.

Modelling the suppression of a malaria vector using a CRISPR-Cas9 gene drive to reduce female fertility.

BACKGROUND: Gene drives based on CRISPR-Cas9 technology are increasingly being considered as tools for reducing the capacity of mosquito populations to transmit malaria, and one of the most promising options is driving endonuclease genes that reduce the fertility of female mosquitoes. In particular, there is much interest in constructs that target the conserved mosquito doublesex (dsx) gene such that the emergence of functional drive-resistant alleles is unlikely. Proof of principle that these constructs can lead to substantial population suppression has been obtained in population cages, and they are being evaluated for use in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we use simulation modelling to understand the factors affecting the spread of this type of gene drive over a one million-square kilometre area of West Africa containing substantial environmental and social heterogeneity. RESULTS: We found that a driving endonuclease gene targeting female fertility could lead to substantial reductions in malaria vector populations on a regional scale. The exact level of suppression is influenced by additional fitness costs of the transgene such as the somatic expression of Cas9, and its deposition in sperm or eggs leading to damage to the zygote. In the absence of these costs, or of emergent drive-resistant alleles that restore female fertility, population suppression across the study area is predicted to stabilise at ~ 95% 4 years after releases commence. Small additional fitness costs do not greatly affect levels of suppression, though if the fertility of females whose offspring transmit the construct drops by more than ~ 40%, then population suppression is much less efficient. We show the suppression potential of a drive allele with high fitness costs can be enhanced by engineering it also to express male bias in the progeny of transgenic males. Irrespective of the strength of the drive allele, the spatial model predicts somewhat less suppression than equivalent non-spatial models, in particular in highly seasonal regions where dry season stochasticity reduces drive efficiency. We explored the robustness of these results to uncertainties in mosquito ecology, in particular their method of surviving the dry season and their dispersal rates. CONCLUSIONS: The modelling presented here indicates that considerable suppression of vector populations can be achieved within a few years of using a female sterility gene drive, though the impact is likely to be heterogeneous in space and time.

Author Correction: A male-biased sex-distorter gene drive for the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A male-biased sex-distorter gene drive for the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae.

Only female insects transmit diseases such as malaria, dengue and Zika; therefore, control methods that bias the sex ratio of insect offspring have long been sought. Genetic elements such as sex-chromosome drives can distort sex ratios to produce unisex populations that eventually collapse, but the underlying molecular mechanisms are unknown. We report a male-biased sex-distorter gene drive (SDGD) in the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae. We induced super-Mendelian inheritance of the X-chromosome-shredding I-PpoI nuclease by coupling this to a CRISPR-based gene drive inserted into a conserved sequence of the doublesex (dsx) gene. In modeling of invasion dynamics, SDGD was predicted to have a quicker impact on female mosquito populations than previously developed gene drives targeting female fertility. The SDGD at the dsx locus led to a male-only population from a 2.5% starting allelic frequency in 10-14 generations, with population collapse and no selection for resistance. Our results support the use of SDGD for malaria vector control.

Estimating linkage disequilibrium from genotypes under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

BACKGROUND: Measures of linkage disequilibrium (LD) play a key role in a wide range of applications from disease association to demographic history estimation. The true population LD cannot be measured directly and instead can only be inferred from genetic samples, which are unavoidably subject to measurement error. Previous studies of r2 (a measure of LD), such as the bias due to finite sample size and its variance, were based on the special case that the true population-wise LD is zero. These results generally do not hold for non-zero [Formula: see text] values, which are more common in real genetic data. RESULTS: This work generalises the estimation of r2 to all levels of LD, and for both phased and unphased data. First, we provide new formulae for the effect of finite sample size on the observed r2 values. Second, we find a new empirical formula for the variance of the observed r2, equals to 2E[r2](1 - E[r2])/n, where n is the diploid sample size. Third, we propose a new routine, Constrained ML, a likelihood-based method to directly estimate haplotype frequencies and r2 from diploid genotypes under Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium. While serving the same purpose as the pre-existing Expectation-Maximisation algorithm, the new routine can have better convergence and is simpler to use. A new likelihood-ratio test is also introduced to test for the absence of a particular haplotype. Extensive simulations are run to support these findings. CONCLUSION: Most inferences on LD will benefit from our new findings, from point and interval estimation to hypothesis testing. Genetic analyses utilising r2 information will become more accurate as a result.

Gene drive for population genetic control: non-functional resistance and parental effects.

Gene drive is a natural process of biased inheritance that, in principle, could be used to control pest and vector populations. As with any form of pest control, attention should be paid to the possibility of resistance evolving. For nuclease-based gene drive aimed at suppressing a population, resistance could arise by changes in the target sequence that maintain function, and various strategies have been proposed to reduce the likelihood that such alleles arise. Even if these strategies are successful, it is almost inevitable that alleles will arise at the target site that are resistant to the drive but do not restore function, and the impact of such sequences on the dynamics of control has been little studied. We use population genetic modelling of a strategy targeting a female fertility gene to demonstrate that such alleles may be expected to accumulate, and thereby reduce the reproductive load on the population, if nuclease expression per se causes substantial heterozygote fitness effects or if parental (especially paternal) deposition of nuclease either reduces offspring fitness or affects the genotype of their germline. All these phenomena have been observed in synthetic drive constructs. It will, therefore, be important to allow for non-functional resistance alleles in predicting the dynamics of constructs in cage populations and the impacts of any field release.

Robust Estimation of Recent Effective Population Size from Number of Independent Origins in Soft Sweeps.

Estimating recent effective population size is of great importance in characterizing and predicting the evolution of natural populations. Methods based on nucleotide diversity may underestimate current day effective population sizes due to historical bottlenecks, whereas methods that reconstruct demographic history typically only detect long-term variations. However, soft selective sweeps, which leave a fingerprint of mutational history by recurrent mutations on independent haplotype backgrounds, holds promise of an estimate more representative of recent population history. Here, we present a simple and robust method of estimation based only on knowledge of the number of independent recurrent origins and the current frequency of the beneficial allele in a population sample, independent of the strength of selection and age of the mutation. Using a forward-time theoretical framework, we show the mean number of origins is a function of θ=2Nµ and current allele frequency, through a simple equation, and the distribution is approximately Poisson. This estimate is robust to whether mutants preexisted before selection arose and is equally accurate for diploid populations with incomplete dominance. For fast (e.g., seasonal) demographic changes compared with time scale for fixation of the mutant allele, and for moderate peak-to-trough ratios, we show our constant population size estimate can be used to bound the maximum and minimum population size. Applied to the Vgsc gene of Anopheles gambiae, we estimate an effective population size of roughly 6×107, and including seasonal demographic oscillations, a minimum effective population size >3×107, and a maximum <6×109, suggesting a mean ∼109.

Modelling the potential of genetic control of malaria mosquitoes at national scale.

BACKGROUND: The persistence of malaria in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa has motivated the development of novel tools to complement existing control programmes, including gene-drive technologies to modify mosquito vector populations. Here, we use a stochastic simulation model to explore the potential of using a driving-Y chromosome to suppress vector populations in a 106 km2 area of West Africa including all of Burkina Faso. RESULTS: The consequence of driving-Y introductions is predicted to vary across the landscape, causing elimination of the target species in some regions and suppression in others. We explore how this variation is determined by environmental conditions, mosquito behaviour, and the properties of the gene-drive. Seasonality is particularly important, and we find population elimination is more likely in regions with mild dry seasons whereas suppression is more likely in regions with strong seasonality. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the spatial heterogeneity, we suggest that repeated introductions of modified mosquitoes over a few years into a small fraction of human settlements may be sufficient to substantially reduce the overall number of mosquitoes across the entire geographic area.